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Covid

The Covid News You Didn’t Hear

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We have been misled!

Around June 2020, the C.D.C. and most countries RECATEGORIZED their Flu data and Heart disease data to put under the Corona Virus column. It gave the appearance that the leading cause of death, Heart Disease, was drastically removed from the picture by Covid, and the Flu has virtually gone away. (Normal total deaths per week in the US from all causes has been about 60,000 for many years.)

Here’s the most recent revelation: https://trendingpolitics.com/52-charts-show-mask-mandates-have-no-effect-on-covid-cases-knab/

The following  is ignored information from November of 2020 and Genevieve Briand’s Applied Economics analysis of the data. It’s been over 5 months since this information went public…to a limited audience. I’ve posted a summary of her conclusions plus an excerpt from the johns hopkins News -Letter below. Scroll down to read the balance of this article.

Here is her data source: The johns hopkins News-Letter.  (Bold type emphasis added by me.)

https://10478.tracking.markethero.io/v1/r?url=https%3A%2F%2Fweb.archive.org%2Fweb%2F20201126163323%2Fhttps%3A%2Fwww.jhunewsletter.com%2Farticle%2F2020%2F11%2Fa-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19&lh=ba494471069cd4d56fe3d176f783781ac924e52621f2ef254b9256c6cebaced3&eh=43c84b30d3d0103eec4ab137ef439db28decb3e16cdae16284a1573ae76aeecb

from Genevieve Briand

 

“Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKJN61aflI

(This is a long video presentation but you can forward to the 25 minute mark. Her main observations and why she’s skeptical are presented between times 25 and 45 minutes.)

From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.

She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same. 

“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths. (True, many people have died from Covid infection but even more have died from other causes while testing positive for Covid.)

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.

This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?

To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.

Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.

“This is true every year. Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes,” Briand pointed out.

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph above, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

COURTESY OF GENEVIEVE BRIAND  (see above)

Graph above depicts the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018.

Chart above depicts the total decrease in deaths by various causes, including COVID-19.

This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19. 

The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.

“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.

In an interview with The News-Letter, Briand addressed the question of whether COVID-19 deaths can be called misleading since the infection might have exacerbated and even led to deaths by other underlying diseases.

“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.

In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the U.S. is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand’s view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.

Briand also mentioned that more research and data are needed to truly decipher the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States.

Throughout the talk, Briand constantly emphasized that although COVID-19 is a serious national and global problem, she also stressed that society should never lose focus of the bigger picture — death in general.

The death of a loved one, from COVID-19 or from other causes, is always tragic, Briand explained. Each life is equally important, and we should be reminded that even during a global pandemic we should not forget about the tragic loss of lives from other causes.

According to Briand, the over-exaggeration of the COVID-19 death number may be due to the constant emphasis on COVID-19-related deaths and the habitual overlooking of deaths by other natural causes in society.

(NOTE: My conclusion and observations about Dr. Briand’s presentation and the Johns Hopkins report is this: We’ve been grossly misled.)

Panic over the threat of Covid has been fueled by politicians seeking control. The more fear they induce through the media, the more willing the populace becomes to accepting new restrictions, regulations and taxes. The medical community has been infected with this fear mongering as well. The world’s leading pharmaceutical corporations have profited mightily by the clamor for a vaccine and the public shaming of anyone who didn’t agree to receive it.

Highly respected groups of doctors, researchers, scientists and practitioners have been silenced, ridiculed and ignored by the press when they encouraged calm and reassured us of the safety of such known solutions and treatments as, Hydroxy Choloroquin, Zinc, Vitamin D and other inexpensive remedies. They said this disease is serious but not much more than the seasonal flu which also takes lives annually. That caused them to be immediately silenced.

Despite the “science” showing clearly that the regulations and mandates don’t work, the deception goes on. Again, here’s the data on masking to fight Covid.

https://trendingpolitics.com/52-charts-show-mask-mandates-have-no-effect-on-covid-cases-knab/

A profound societal shift has taken place with vast numbers of people embracing the fear of Covid. In many communities, it is considered right and reasonable to require masks in all places of human contact, and parents and children have been taught for over a year now to fear this disease. Mainstream media has done nothing to reduce the fears. Even the White House has denied the science and reinforced the alarm despite profound evidence to the contrary. As recently as President Biden’s speech on April 28, 2021 to a Joint Session of Congress, masks were worn by all present even though all had received the vaccinations. 

It is time to expose the myth and relax our fears. Be reasonable, do what you do when the flu, Ebola, AIDS, SARS, MERS, Meningitis and other diseases are present. Practice good hygiene, avoid contact with others when you or they are ill, respect people’s phobias, but get on with life!

And remember, we still need hugs just as often as we ever did. Plus, shaking hands does more to bond a relationship than an “air high five” could ever do. Social distance ought to be a foot or two apart from strangers, as a courtesy, not six feet or more because you fear getting a disease from them. Take the stickers off your retail floors. Give people the option of no mask. Gather in crowds, hold parties, dance, sing, and enjoy life. Touch each other without fear. We have done this for centuries without creating a pandemic, and we didn’t cause one this time either! This was a pandemic created by the media around a new variant of the flu that didn’t need the response we gave it. Open your businesses, your homes, your minds to normal human behavior. Be reasonable but don’t cower in fear. P.S. I am not a doctor and do not have medical qualifications for this advice, so do what works for you, but don’t believe all that you’ve been told, including this report. Do your real research, don’t just trust the headlines and evening news.

We have been misled!

For yet another example of how our government and CDC has done this before go to Mike Wallace on 60 Minutes when he was doing a report on the Swine Flu. Millions were vaccinated (some disabled by the vaccine) and yet only one person died from it while four others recovered and the nation was panicked over a virus that had shown no impact large enough to sound an alarm. https://www.brighteon.com/f4581da9-79f0-46bf-a95e-da69b1da6723 

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Jim Cathcart, CSP, CPAE is an Executive MBA Professor, Author of 20 books, Hall of Fame Professional Speaker, Top 1% TEDx video (2.4 million views), US Army veteran, Singer/Songwriter, and Lifelong Motorcyclist. He is known as "Your Virtual VP" for his advisory work with organizations worldwide. Based in Texas...and proud of it!



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Covid

Give Me Liberty or Give Me The Vaccine

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Patrick Henry Speaking About Freedom

The American history books once taught of a patriot named Patrick Henry. Patrick Henry was a founding father of American. Yes, the term founding father is a term that Google still finds worthy as they identify Henry as one. Patrick Henry was a man who stood up to the oppression of King George. In the second Virginia Convention in 1775, he proclaimed, “give me liberty or give me death.”

In days past, Patrick Henry was a symbol of the American spirit of freedom. His passion and his ability to communicate his desire for freedom are powerful words that continue to motivate bold and courageous leaders for the last 200 years.

Today it would be wise for patriot Americans who value freedom to pick up this sentiment again. The call that freedom is the most essential component of existence which brings life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Vaccine Manipulation:

President Joe Biden now declares that Americans who do not take the Covid19 vaccine are “not as smart as he thought they were” and that they (American citizens) are “a real problem.”

Many Americans believe in the vaccine, but they believe more in freedom. Donald Trump, the leader of the Republic Party, has also encouraged people to get the vaccine. The vaccine is not a Republican or Democrat issue, but how the vaccine is administered very much speaks to how the political leaders look at freedom.

Free Americans should believe that the Government should not be able to dictate the health decisions that an individual should make. They believe that they should have the ability to review facts and data and not be forced to decide on their health based on strawman arguments like you “if you care for your pet, you should get vaccinated.”

Maybe instead of shaming people or trying to bribe people into getting the vaccine, lawmakers should convince people on the merit of the issue and allow them to exercise their freedom to make the best choice for themselves and their country; after all, that is what freedom is about. Maybe President Biden could try to solve the real problem in the vaccine issue. He could do that by answering the questions that many Americans are still looking for as they analyze their decision about their own health. Answering any or all of the following questions would be a start:

Vaccine Questions About Covid19:

 1.  What are the top 3 risks that a person might experience with the Covid19 vaccine? Instead of answering this simple question, those that are in charge get offended when people seek good answers to health. It has been the history in America to outline the potential health hazards to people’s choices, such as a warning on a pack of cigarettes. But this concept seems foreign to those that would like to manipulate the public to make a decision without a choice – that just seems wrong.

2.  Why does everyone need the vaccine, including those that already have had Covid19? This is an honest question and one that Senator Rand Paul has asked. There may be a case to be made for those who have had Covid19 to receive the vaccine, but it seems like no logical or rational person is making one.

3.  Is there anyone who should not get the Covid19 vaccines? Health issues are very personal issues and often are different for people with different issues and demographics. There has been minimal talk in mainstream media about exceptions to the vaccine and more and more talk about how even babies should be getting the vaccine.  John Hopkins recently misled their readers with a statement on their website about children getting the vaccine –

“Yes. Experts, including those at Johns Hopkins, believe that the benefits of being vaccinated for COVID-19 outweigh the risks. Although COVID-19 in children is usually milder than in adults, some kids can get very sick and have complications or long-lasting symptoms that affect their health and well-being. The virus can cause death in children, although this is rarer than for adults.”  

Further, the CDC is now recommending the pregnant women, and new mothers who are breastfeeding should receive the vaccine. They state on the website, 

“Pregnant and recently pregnant people are more likely to get severely ill with COVID-19 compared with non-pregnant people. If you are pregnant, you can receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Getting a COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy can protect you from severe illness from COVID-19.”

These kinds of one-sided statements should be carefully read to consider the political biases of the organization. One has to wonder if they are really concerned about the health of the individual or the health of the whole. I would be very hesitant to recommend a trial vaccine to a pregnant woman when there have not been studies to show that no impact will be made on the mother of the child.

4.  Where did Covid19 originate? An essential question in the vaccine conversation should be a consideration as to where Covid originated. If Covid19 originated in a lab as a way to kill off a part of the communist elderly in China, then that would dedicate who needs the vaccine.  

The idea that a communist country was developing a method to kill off part of its population for population control should be considered and explored. American politicians on the left seem to forget that just a few years ago, communist China limited the number of babies that their people could have and would kill a child if it was born and was above the number that the Government dictated as acceptable. It is fair for the American population to wait to understand where Covid19 began before making health choices about their own health.

These questions and many more still deserve an answer. It is the responsibility of the leaders and press in a free country to answer the fair and honest questions of free people. Until those questions, millions of Americans will still cry out, “give me liberty, or give me the vaccine.” These Americans still choose freedom first.

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Business

BBQs Cook Fish, Too – Beware the Weber, Traeger IPOs

BBQ company insiders are trying to put all you fish directly onto hot coals via their IPOs.

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BBQ Fail

As we all know, Covid-19 policies have created an interesting array of winners and losers. Restaurants, travel and mall-based retail? Wah, wah. Meanwhile, any company remotely tied to housing, remodeling or recreation has been on absolute fire.

So what if your traditionally slow-growth, low-margin business suddenly had its best year ever by a wide margin? You’d probably think very seriously about trying to sell it.

That is exactly what is happening with the spate of BBQ-related IPOs that are about to pour onto this market.

Are the upcoming initial public offerings of Traeger Pellet Grills and Weber good ideas for your investment portfolio? Be very careful.

First, it’s highly likely they’ve taken the route of public markets because they have nowhere else to go. Truly, who is Traeger’s logical acquirer? In a bygone era, Sears might have represented a possible exit but such buyers no longer exist. Maybe one of the few large competitors in this highly-fragmented industry like Weber? Whoops – they’re going public, too!

Focusing on Weber, what a story they seem to have on their hands, being able to claim 6-month revenue growth rates of over 60%! Wow!

Problem is, IBIS says annual growth of the bbq industry over the last 5 years averaged 4.7%, which means Weber caught lightning in a bottle thanks to this pandemic and they’re trying to cash in. Same with Traeger.

Unfair assessment, you say? Then why are roughly 2/3 of Traeger’s IPO shares being sold by insiders? That’s right, only 1/3 of this offering is to raise working capital for the company. The rest is insiders cashing out.

Hey, I’ll be the first to admit that Traeger grills are pretty cool. And these are familiar names so they may catch a bid based on that familiarity for a while, particularly if this housing market keeps steaming ahead. But by no means are these 10-year investments. If you just can’t help yourself and absolutely have to play with these shares, think more in terms of 10 weeks. Or 10 days.

Truly, how much longer can the explosive growth in our world of economic distortions last? Regardless, is there any way companies like this are going to keep posting 50%+ growth numbers? Pfffffffff.

Heck, as recently as 2019, Weber’s y-o-y revenues declined by 3%. That’s the nature of this industry – a little growth here, a little step back there… slow, stodgy, boring.

Even in Weber’s bounce back year of 2020, when revenues rebounded 15% compared to the prior full year? They made a paltry $88 million on $1.5 billion in revenues. Those are grocery store margins.

Yet despite this industry’s historically slow growth and non-existent margins, Weber’s market cap at IPO next week will be roughly $5 billion, meaning the shares will trade with a P/E of close to 60 like they’re some high-flying tech unicorn! Truly amazing stuff, but par for the course in today’s everything bubble.

As an aside, by the way, don’t even think about looking elsewhere in this sector, like to VELO and its recent announcement that the SPAC is taking BBQ Guys public. Does anyone recall what happened to BBQ retailers in the last economic downturn? If the phrase, “buh-bye,” doesn’t come to mind, you simply weren’t paying attention.

Make no mistake, all these BBQ industry IPOs are ‘greater fool’ investments at their finest. Sorry, but you’re the dumb money the insiders and their private equity backers are asking to buy their shares after one-time growth surges that probably surpassed even their wildest imaginations.

There’s an old saying in poker: if you look around the table and can’t figure out who the fish is, you’re the fish.

In this case, the BBQ company insiders are trying to put all you fish directly on their hot coals.

No, thanks. I’ll have a salad this time instead.

 

P.S. Yes, this is a new pen name but you probably know me. I’ve a new Twitter profile, too… please consider giving me a follow their and we’ll get this train rolling.

Photo by Martin Boose from FreeImages

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