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Donald Trump’s Comeback Starts Now!

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The comeback for Donald Trump starts now!  Donald Trump’s comeback starts now as he speaks to his supporters at CPAC on Sunday.  Donald Trump wrote the Art of the Comeback in 1997. Now in 2021, he is poised to make his most remarkable comeback yet. This Sunday, the 45th President of the United States will return to the place his political movement began – CPAC.  CPAC is the largest gathering of conservatives in the nation each year and this year they have the focus of America Uncanceled. On Sunday, Donald Trump will address his base and the country.

Indeed the comebacks starts now.  Trumpist and conservatives are anxious to hear from Trump.  His followers continue to look to the leader who led the Nation to a robust economy and through the pandemic that plagued the world.

How will Trump choose to start his comeback?

Maybe he could focus on the economy that he worked so hard to build. One message that the world needs to hear now is how to recover from the pandemic and get businesses back to work. Biden’s slogan of “Build Back Better” was catchy but lacked details on how to open the economy and build back. Trump, the business owner who has built back better from losses, can teach the American people and the business world how to recover from setbacks and failures.

Part of the amazing story of Trump is how he always recovers from setbacks. Policies like restricting Federal overreach, better trade deals, and helping small businesses through grants and loans are the right message to send to begin a comeback. Trump gets things done.   He can contrast that reality with a Democratic house that has set on its hands during the pandemic. The Democratic leaders are good at pointing fingers, while Trump is good at pointing the way forward.

Finish the wall!

Or he could focus on Americanism. Trump won his election against Hillary Clinton because of his focus on “Making America Great Again.”  He defined making America great by protecting its borders, elevating law and order, and overcoming radical terrorism around the world.  He would do well to remind people of these consistent real threats that would still impact the American people’s day-to-day lives.

People are drawn to Trump because of his strength and his convictions.  He will motivate the crowd and inspire his based when he speaks of past and new convictions that will make America great.  Statements such as “Finish the Wall” and “Make elections honest” will create a new buzz that will propel him forward as the man who will shape the Republican party and continue to shape the Nation.

Vote them Out!

He could go on the attack of those that have attacked him. Trump understands the anger that is brewing in America over career politicians that continue to make money instead of help the people.  Trump should remind his listeners that the attacks on him are really attacks against the American people.  The smugness of the Democratic leaders and the disdain of the ultra-liberal media against the common person or common decency will engender a movement of conservatives to use their voice and their vote to remove those that have forgotten that they represent the people of America.

Trump should start a movement to “vote them out!”  Trump likes to punch back at those that punch at him.  However, instead of name calling, he could call out the wicked and scheming actions of those that attacked him.   If he could punch back for the American people, he would set himself in contrast to those currently in power.  He would again become the voice of the people.

Get me help!

Trump should announce that he will lead the Trump Make America Great Again political action committee.  This committee will be a platform to help elect leaders and politicians that align with his vision.  These politicians will care more about the American people than they do their pocketbooks. He should follow the example of Newgt Gringrich and create a new contract with America. He should identify his top priorities that every politician should sign on to receive his and his follower’s support. His clarity on this message will inspire a new group of politicians to run with him when he seeks reelection.

Finally, Trump should show vulnerability about the election loss and the riot at the Capital. Acknowledging his humility will only make him stronger.  Talking about his sadness over the loss of life at the capital will make him relatable.  Speaking about the disobedience to law and order will only make his pathway to action brighter.  Trump understands that change happens not from yelling change from the podium, but rather when the American people rise up and act in their local communities and precincts.  When the American people speak and call their local representatives, they move the representative to action.  Only the people can ensure fair and free elections.

In his book, The Art of the Comeback, Trump put in his forward an apology.  He apologized to two men that he felt he was too hard on in his previous book.  It was a fantastic way to start a book about comebacks.  It will also be an amazing way for him to begin his own comeback.  By apologizing for what happened at the Capital and for losing the election (even amid voter irregularities), Trump will stand above the political fray.   He will become a leader that every American can trust and admire.

The secret for the comeback of Donald Trump can be found in his book, The Art of Comeback. Trump writes,

“I’m a firm believer in learning from Adversity. Often the worst of times can turn to your advantage – my life is a study of that.”

Indeed, Trump is not done; in fact, his legacy is just beginning. Much like the Kennedys before him, he can shape the nation for the next 50 years.  Twitter and social media worked to silence him, but he will not be silenced.  His comeback starts this Sunday, and indeed it will be fun to watch.

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Ken Gosnell is the CEO and Servant Leader of CEO Experience (CXP). His company serves Christian CEOs and leaders by helping them to hear the words Well Done. CEO Experience provides great retreat experiences for CEOs that both transform them and their organizations that enable them to go further faster. Ken is the publisher of the CXP CEO Executive Guide that is designed to help leaders learn faster by encouraging them to give themselves a monthly learning retreat. His monthly CEO retreats have helped thousands of CEOs and their leadership teams to enhance strategic, operational, and people accomplishments. He is a keynote speaker, executive coach, and strategic partner with CEOs and successful business leaders. He is also the author of the book Well Done - Biblical Business Principles leaders can use to Grow their business with Kingdom Impact



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Business

Micro-tasking, not Multitasking, for Effective Performance

Professionals who can micro-task are in demand; multitaskers are doing themselves and their organizations a disservice.

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Much as been discussed about multitasking and fortunately, much of what has been written exposes the myth that multitasking represents. Instead of making us more productive and having a greater output, we tend to slow down on the very things that were trying to speed up on, and we end up making more errors.

Micro-tasking, by contrast, is the ability to compartmentalize and to focus in quick, short intervals on a variety of items that compete for attention — a vital skill for career professionals. Micro-tasking is effective for quick decisions, and for handling routine and short term tasks term nature. Multitasking is the attempt to handle two important tasks at the same time. It is not to be confused with micro-tasking.

A Skill to Cultivate

Some workers have little choice in the short run but to work in a distracting, noisy environment. Some employees, in particular, were retained to be able to quickly shift their attention from one issue to another, focusing on each issue as needed.

In an interruption-based environment, such as a hospital, police station, retail store, or airline ticket counter, the ability to micro-task is a valuable skill. Throughout the course of a day, a manager in such settings might encounter a variety of people asking questions and voicing concerns. For sale managers micro-tasking can make all the difference in making quota or not.

Tasks that require our sharp attention necessitate that we slow down, focus, keep interruptions at bay, and work as effectively as we can, toward completion. Handling two tasks simultaneously, each of which require sharp attention, is a prescription for poor results.

Be in Demand

Professionals who can micro-task are in demand. Others, who engage in multitasking, are doing themselves and their organizations, a disservice.

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When the Market Crashes, There is Only One Place to Hide

Here’s the short, simple reality to understand: in powerful down markets, every asset class gets clobbered.

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Pile of Cash

“This is Wall Street, Dr. Burry. If you offer us free money, we are going to take it.”

-Smug, Know-Nothing Goldman Sachs Chicky in The Big Short

My firm didn’t operate too differently from the above statement, frankly. but there was that one time we said no…

In 2007 or 2008 – I don’t recall exactly – a mutual fund client asked us to create a defensive portfolio they could launch as a new product.

Sounds simple enough, right? Except, they weren’t looking for a portfolio loaded with utilities, healthcare and consumer staples.

What they wanted was a portfolio of stocks that would rise when the market was falling (it already was falling, but Wall Street is just as good at closing the barn door after the animals have left as are elected officials).

I suspected this would be tough to create. Once we ran our studies, indeed we realized this was an impossible request and for the first time ever, we declined the portfolio request.

Here’s the short, simple reality to understand: in powerful down markets, every asset class gets clobbered. *

Put in a more fancy-pants sounding, Wall Streety way: during crashes, correlation skyrockets. In this case, it was effectively impossible to create a portfolio of stocks that would rise in a crashing market; all stocks crater in that environment.

Correlation is measured on a scale of -1 to 1. A reading of 1 defines perfect correlation, -1 is perfect inverse correlation and 0 means no correlation at all.

A reading of 1 is easy to understand but think of the others this way. The correlation of wearing surgical masks and the spread of covid almost certainly resides near zero. Jen Psaki’s relationship with the truth? Probably a -.9 or so.

As an aside, both high and low correlations have value. For instance, we had a good friend in college who we came to realize had a sense of direction that had to be very close to a full negative 1. If he were in the car and thought we should turn left, the rest of us knew with total certainty to go right.

With correlation, readings at or near 1 and -.1 are rare in anything that actually requires study, so measurements above .4 already start to imply strong correlation.

When we looked at the historical track record we found that in severe downturns, all asset classes fell with the market at correlations above .5. It was eerie.

What about foreign stocks? Um, no… that’s actually a double whammy of bad news. Not only do their markets get hammered at least as hard as ours, currency declines magnify those losses. We can all appropriately hate what our leaders are doing to destroy the U.S. Dollar, but in a world of fiat currencies it is ours the world runs to as the safe haven. Most foreign currencies decline in value as a result.

Cryptos? Who the hell knows, but why would they be spared if gold isn’t?

Wait, what about gold? Yeah, it will probably act like a safe haven in a down market but in this case that probably means it will just decline less than stocks overall. For instance, while the Dow literally got cut in half from October, 2007 to February, 2009, gold’s peak-to-trough decline in 2008 was fully 25%.

By being down “only” 25%, did gold perform better than the market? Yes, but correlation of the direction of the movement skyrocketed even in this safe-haven asset class.

Quick disclaimer: I currently own gold and silver and will be holding these positions. But I hold them in the proper size and I am also expecting them to initially decline when the market really tanks.

Important note: if you’re holding gold and silver mining companies – which, after all, are just stocks – you can expect them to get hammered just as hard as all the stocks around them. The relative outperformance of bullion itself won’t save them; again, just go look at 2008.

Okay, so what the heck should someone do right now?

Well, I don’t like giving “right now” investment advice so I’ll say what I have been saying all year to close friends and family: if you’re fully invested, raise at least some cash in your portfolio. I’ve been advising a minimum of 20% but that figure will vary depending on your personality.

As I’ve been telling them, think of it this way: if I’m wrong and the market keeps ramping higher on the back of all this stimulus – and that indeed is the only reason the market has continued its 2021 surge, btw – and you’re still 80% invested, you’ll still be making a lot of money and you’ll feel okay about it. Sure, you’ll mutter that I was early with this advice – I have been all year and still could be depending on central bank responses to this decline – but you won’t resent me for the input.

If you stay fully invested, however, and the market tanks by 40%, you’ll feel ill. Having some cash on the sidelines provides for a rainy day, keeps something available with which to buy stocks near future lows and, most importantly, will do wonders for both your decision making and your psyche.

When people get stuck for cash – margin calls, mortgage payments, whatever the need may be – they make all sorts of bad decisions. They’ll sell whatever they have to and often, it’s psychologically easier to sell their “winners” along the way than it is the stocks that have been crushed the most. What many people end up with at bottoms is a portfolio full of the crappiest individual names.

‘Oh great,’ you may be thinking, ‘you’re telling us this on a day when the market is already down 500 points. Thanks a lot.’

True. Actually, I’ve had this post 80% drafted for the last 10 days or so, it just felt like that this might be the jarring market day in which readers would take it seriously. Let me explain by doing a little mind reset with you:

You may have a 401k that had risen, say, from $200k to $500k over the last three years (until 2 weeks ago). Awesome! But unsustainable.

After the market weakness of the last couple weeks, maybe its value has declined to $450k. If you’re the type that thinks my advice makes sense, but you don’t want to sell any stocks or mutual funds because they just fell from $500k, your mindset is all wrong. Sorry to be so blunt but it’s true.

Here’s what you actually have on your hands: a 401k that has risen from $200k to $450k over the last three years. Still awesome, also unsustainable.

If you think you’re the one genius who can nail market tops perfectly and you’re now certain that the market will soon regain its recent highs, re-read my last sentence and get your head on straight.

That said, at this moment I do have to admit that I don’t know if this is the start of the big correction. On the one hand, a few too many people for my taste are looking for that crash. On the other, how insanely optimistic did the market have to be that only now it is noticing the slow-moving Evergrande disaster in China that has been known for a year and plainly visible for nearly a month?

Regardless, the point is this: if this is the start of the big correction – or even a true bear market – then this is only the beginning.

We’re at such stratospheric valuation heights – the highest in history, generally – that the next big correction will take stocks down 30, 40 or even 50%.

So yes, it’s still okay to be raising at least some cash today. Even today.

Tighten up stop losses. Raise cash right now from zero to 5% if your end goal is 20%. Redirect future 401k deposits to the money market fund rather than the high-growth stock funds you’ve been riding.

In short: take action. Don’t be paralyzed and again keep in mind this simple reality: in powerful down markets, nothing gets spared. The only place to hide is in cash.

This post has me re-awakened. More soon…
FDG

*Historically, there has been one other place to hide in down markets: high grade, U.S. bonds. That will likely still turn out to be the case – indeed, bonds are rallying today – but what’s the point? The rates offered by today’s bonds are so meaningless as to be roughly equivalent with cash so my preference at this moment in time is for cash.

 

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