Tainted Superbowl, Tainted Governance - Politicrossing
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Tainted Superbowl, Tainted Governance

By politicizing the IRS, the Democrats made a stunning and direct attack on democracy.

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Were you among the more than a billion-plus people who watched the 2014 Super Bowl? If so, like multi-millions of viewers, you might have been disappointed afterward to learn of the cheating that occurred. The Seattle Seahawks swamped the Denver Broncos, seemingly, on play after play, as if they knew exactly what the Broncos were going to do with each snap of the football.

As it turned out, the Seahawks did know what the Broncos were going to do. As was revealed on talk shows a few days later by some of the Seahawks players themselves, they had stolen the signs of the Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. More often than not, they knew in advance what play the Broncos were going to run and hence stayed ahead of the Broncos on one play after another.

The net result was that fans around the world were treated to a less than stellar game. Some called it the worst game they had witnessed in their Super Bowl viewing lives.

Theft on an Enormous Level

So it is in American politics, especially as practiced by the Obama-Biden administration. After the Democrats were swamped at the voting booth in the 2010 midterm elections, timeline evidence reveals that the IRS, on orders from the highest level of government, instigated tactics that should make each of us shiver.

Under the daily direction of Lois Lerner, with marching orders from above, the IRS began a comprehensive program of targeting groups that held contrary positions to that of the Obama/Biden administration: The IRS initiated a program of deliberate harassment and punishment of political opponents.

Lerner is a fellow alumni of Bloomfield High School in Connecticut. She graduated one year ahead of me and today lives in comfortable retirement supported in part by her government pension, funded by our tax dollars!

Unprecedented Impact

In a research paper, Andreas Madestam of Stockholm University, Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott, both at the Harvard Kennedy School, and Stan Veuger at the American Enterprise Institute studied the Tea Party impact on voter turnout in the 2010 midterm elections. Extracting information from the Census Bureau, the Federal Election Commission, news reporting, and other sources, they compared geographic areas with significant levels of Tea Party activity to nearly similar geographic areas with little or no Tea Party activity.

The researchers discovered the Tea Party’s impact was enormous, and in House races, brought the GOP between 3 and 6 million additional votes, even though, combined, all Republican House candidates attained less than 45 million votes. Thus, the GOP’s newly energized base proved to be instrumental to many landslide victories in key elections. Democratic strategists took note.

The Tea Party’s unprecedented success came as a result of highly involved activists nationwide, who devoted countless hours leading up to the 2010 elections rallying, donating, volunteering, and organizing, all centered upon section 501(c)4s of IRS code.

The data that the researchers uncovered illustrated that if the Tea Party advocacy and impact had continued at the 2009/10 pace, they would have bolstered the Republican vote in 2012 by 5.0 million to 8.5 million, this compared to Barack Obama’s margin of victory of 5 million votes.

Badgered on Cue

Harassed and delayed by the IRS, the Tea Party came to a standstill. State by state, no one realized that what was happening to them was occurring on a grand scale. Rather than delivering an estimated 5 to 8 million GOP voters in the 2012 election, the Tea Party became a non-player. Barack Obama won the popular vote by an 11 to 10 ratio, but easily won the electoral vote.

The Democrats emulated the Tea Party “playbook” and made for a blasé election season, where the outcome was already known to the handful of insiders. Such politicizing of the IRS, and other agencies, was a stunning and direct attack on democracy. Attempts to tilt elections are nothing new in American politics, but perhaps were never executed on so massive a scale with such precision. Related tactics likely continued through 2020, when Democrat election tampering and voter fraud likely reached historic heights.

Bogus Democrat Winners Galore

If Republicans had politicized and weaponized the IRS as the Obama administration had done, and deliberately targeted, harassed, and punished liberal advocacy groups, the Left would go berserk. The New York Times, to this day, would be featuring the scandal on the front page.

Yet, for eight years plus, the typical American, let alone Republican, doesn’t give Tea Party harassment much thought. Given what we know about 2012, is it reasonable to conclude that numerous national, state, and local elections in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 went to bogus winners, and more of the same – much more – is in the offing.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



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Micro-tasking, not Multitasking, for Effective Performance

Professionals who can micro-task are in demand; multitaskers are doing themselves and their organizations a disservice.

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Much as been discussed about multitasking and fortunately, much of what has been written exposes the myth that multitasking represents. Instead of making us more productive and having a greater output, we tend to slow down on the very things that were trying to speed up on, and we end up making more errors.

Micro-tasking, by contrast, is the ability to compartmentalize and to focus in quick, short intervals on a variety of items that compete for attention — a vital skill for career professionals. Micro-tasking is effective for quick decisions, and for handling routine and short term tasks term nature. Multitasking is the attempt to handle two important tasks at the same time. It is not to be confused with micro-tasking.

A Skill to Cultivate

Some workers have little choice in the short run but to work in a distracting, noisy environment. Some employees, in particular, were retained to be able to quickly shift their attention from one issue to another, focusing on each issue as needed.

In an interruption-based environment, such as a hospital, police station, retail store, or airline ticket counter, the ability to micro-task is a valuable skill. Throughout the course of a day, a manager in such settings might encounter a variety of people asking questions and voicing concerns. For sale managers micro-tasking can make all the difference in making quota or not.

Tasks that require our sharp attention necessitate that we slow down, focus, keep interruptions at bay, and work as effectively as we can, toward completion. Handling two tasks simultaneously, each of which require sharp attention, is a prescription for poor results.

Be in Demand

Professionals who can micro-task are in demand. Others, who engage in multitasking, are doing themselves and their organizations, a disservice.

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When the Market Crashes, There is Only One Place to Hide

Here’s the short, simple reality to understand: in powerful down markets, every asset class gets clobbered.

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Pile of Cash

“This is Wall Street, Dr. Burry. If you offer us free money, we are going to take it.”

-Smug, Know-Nothing Goldman Sachs Chicky in The Big Short

My firm didn’t operate too differently from the above statement, frankly. but there was that one time we said no…

In 2007 or 2008 – I don’t recall exactly – a mutual fund client asked us to create a defensive portfolio they could launch as a new product.

Sounds simple enough, right? Except, they weren’t looking for a portfolio loaded with utilities, healthcare and consumer staples.

What they wanted was a portfolio of stocks that would rise when the market was falling (it already was falling, but Wall Street is just as good at closing the barn door after the animals have left as are elected officials).

I suspected this would be tough to create. Once we ran our studies, indeed we realized this was an impossible request and for the first time ever, we declined the portfolio request.

Here’s the short, simple reality to understand: in powerful down markets, every asset class gets clobbered. *

Put in a more fancy-pants sounding, Wall Streety way: during crashes, correlation skyrockets. In this case, it was effectively impossible to create a portfolio of stocks that would rise in a crashing market; all stocks crater in that environment.

Correlation is measured on a scale of -1 to 1. A reading of 1 defines perfect correlation, -1 is perfect inverse correlation and 0 means no correlation at all.

A reading of 1 is easy to understand but think of the others this way. The correlation of wearing surgical masks and the spread of covid almost certainly resides near zero. Jen Psaki’s relationship with the truth? Probably a -.9 or so.

As an aside, both high and low correlations have value. For instance, we had a good friend in college who we came to realize had a sense of direction that had to be very close to a full negative 1. If he were in the car and thought we should turn left, the rest of us knew with total certainty to go right.

With correlation, readings at or near 1 and -.1 are rare in anything that actually requires study, so measurements above .4 already start to imply strong correlation.

When we looked at the historical track record we found that in severe downturns, all asset classes fell with the market at correlations above .5. It was eerie.

What about foreign stocks? Um, no… that’s actually a double whammy of bad news. Not only do their markets get hammered at least as hard as ours, currency declines magnify those losses. We can all appropriately hate what our leaders are doing to destroy the U.S. Dollar, but in a world of fiat currencies it is ours the world runs to as the safe haven. Most foreign currencies decline in value as a result.

Cryptos? Who the hell knows, but why would they be spared if gold isn’t?

Wait, what about gold? Yeah, it will probably act like a safe haven in a down market but in this case that probably means it will just decline less than stocks overall. For instance, while the Dow literally got cut in half from October, 2007 to February, 2009, gold’s peak-to-trough decline in 2008 was fully 25%.

By being down “only” 25%, did gold perform better than the market? Yes, but correlation of the direction of the movement skyrocketed even in this safe-haven asset class.

Quick disclaimer: I currently own gold and silver and will be holding these positions. But I hold them in the proper size and I am also expecting them to initially decline when the market really tanks.

Important note: if you’re holding gold and silver mining companies – which, after all, are just stocks – you can expect them to get hammered just as hard as all the stocks around them. The relative outperformance of bullion itself won’t save them; again, just go look at 2008.

Okay, so what the heck should someone do right now?

Well, I don’t like giving “right now” investment advice so I’ll say what I have been saying all year to close friends and family: if you’re fully invested, raise at least some cash in your portfolio. I’ve been advising a minimum of 20% but that figure will vary depending on your personality.

As I’ve been telling them, think of it this way: if I’m wrong and the market keeps ramping higher on the back of all this stimulus – and that indeed is the only reason the market has continued its 2021 surge, btw – and you’re still 80% invested, you’ll still be making a lot of money and you’ll feel okay about it. Sure, you’ll mutter that I was early with this advice – I have been all year and still could be depending on central bank responses to this decline – but you won’t resent me for the input.

If you stay fully invested, however, and the market tanks by 40%, you’ll feel ill. Having some cash on the sidelines provides for a rainy day, keeps something available with which to buy stocks near future lows and, most importantly, will do wonders for both your decision making and your psyche.

When people get stuck for cash – margin calls, mortgage payments, whatever the need may be – they make all sorts of bad decisions. They’ll sell whatever they have to and often, it’s psychologically easier to sell their “winners” along the way than it is the stocks that have been crushed the most. What many people end up with at bottoms is a portfolio full of the crappiest individual names.

‘Oh great,’ you may be thinking, ‘you’re telling us this on a day when the market is already down 500 points. Thanks a lot.’

True. Actually, I’ve had this post 80% drafted for the last 10 days or so, it just felt like that this might be the jarring market day in which readers would take it seriously. Let me explain by doing a little mind reset with you:

You may have a 401k that had risen, say, from $200k to $500k over the last three years (until 2 weeks ago). Awesome! But unsustainable.

After the market weakness of the last couple weeks, maybe its value has declined to $450k. If you’re the type that thinks my advice makes sense, but you don’t want to sell any stocks or mutual funds because they just fell from $500k, your mindset is all wrong. Sorry to be so blunt but it’s true.

Here’s what you actually have on your hands: a 401k that has risen from $200k to $450k over the last three years. Still awesome, also unsustainable.

If you think you’re the one genius who can nail market tops perfectly and you’re now certain that the market will soon regain its recent highs, re-read my last sentence and get your head on straight.

That said, at this moment I do have to admit that I don’t know if this is the start of the big correction. On the one hand, a few too many people for my taste are looking for that crash. On the other, how insanely optimistic did the market have to be that only now it is noticing the slow-moving Evergrande disaster in China that has been known for a year and plainly visible for nearly a month?

Regardless, the point is this: if this is the start of the big correction – or even a true bear market – then this is only the beginning.

We’re at such stratospheric valuation heights – the highest in history, generally – that the next big correction will take stocks down 30, 40 or even 50%.

So yes, it’s still okay to be raising at least some cash today. Even today.

Tighten up stop losses. Raise cash right now from zero to 5% if your end goal is 20%. Redirect future 401k deposits to the money market fund rather than the high-growth stock funds you’ve been riding.

In short: take action. Don’t be paralyzed and again keep in mind this simple reality: in powerful down markets, nothing gets spared. The only place to hide is in cash.

This post has me re-awakened. More soon…
FDG

*Historically, there has been one other place to hide in down markets: high grade, U.S. bonds. That will likely still turn out to be the case – indeed, bonds are rallying today – but what’s the point? The rates offered by today’s bonds are so meaningless as to be roughly equivalent with cash so my preference at this moment in time is for cash.

 

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