The American history books once taught of a patriot named Patrick Henry. Patrick Henry was a founding father of American. Yes, the term founding father is a term that Google still finds worthy as they identify Henry as one. Patrick Henry was a man who stood up to the oppression of King George. In the second Virginia Convention in 1775, he proclaimed, “give me liberty or give me death.”

In days past, Patrick Henry was a symbol of the American spirit of freedom. His passion and his ability to communicate his desire for freedom are powerful words that continue to motivate bold and courageous leaders for the last 200 years.

Today it would be wise for patriot Americans who value freedom to pick up this sentiment again. The call that freedom is the most essential component of existence which brings life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Vaccine Manipulation:

President Joe Biden now declares that Americans who do not take the Covid19 vaccine are “not as smart as he thought they were” and that they (American citizens) are “a real problem.”

Many Americans believe in the vaccine, but they believe more in freedom. Donald Trump, the leader of the Republic Party, has also encouraged people to get the vaccine. The vaccine is not a Republican or Democrat issue, but how the vaccine is administered very much speaks to how the political leaders look at freedom.

Free Americans should believe that the Government should not be able to dictate the health decisions that an individual should make. They believe that they should have the ability to review facts and data and not be forced to decide on their health based on strawman arguments like you “if you care for your pet, you should get vaccinated.”

Maybe instead of shaming people or trying to bribe people into getting the vaccine, lawmakers should convince people on the merit of the issue and allow them to exercise their freedom to make the best choice for themselves and their country; after all, that is what freedom is about. Maybe President Biden could try to solve the real problem in the vaccine issue. He could do that by answering the questions that many Americans are still looking for as they analyze their decision about their own health. Answering any or all of the following questions would be a start:

Vaccine Questions About Covid19:

 1.  What are the top 3 risks that a person might experience with the Covid19 vaccine? Instead of answering this simple question, those that are in charge get offended when people seek good answers to health. It has been the history in America to outline the potential health hazards to people’s choices, such as a warning on a pack of cigarettes. But this concept seems foreign to those that would like to manipulate the public to make a decision without a choice – that just seems wrong.

2.  Why does everyone need the vaccine, including those that already have had Covid19? This is an honest question and one that Senator Rand Paul has asked. There may be a case to be made for those who have had Covid19 to receive the vaccine, but it seems like no logical or rational person is making one.

3.  Is there anyone who should not get the Covid19 vaccines? Health issues are very personal issues and often are different for people with different issues and demographics. There has been minimal talk in mainstream media about exceptions to the vaccine and more and more talk about how even babies should be getting the vaccine.  John Hopkins recently misled their readers with a statement on their website about children getting the vaccine –

“Yes. Experts, including those at Johns Hopkins, believe that the benefits of being vaccinated for COVID-19 outweigh the risks. Although COVID-19 in children is usually milder than in adults, some kids can get very sick and have complications or long-lasting symptoms that affect their health and well-being. The virus can cause death in children, although this is rarer than for adults.”  

Further, the CDC is now recommending the pregnant women, and new mothers who are breastfeeding should receive the vaccine. They state on the website, 

“Pregnant and recently pregnant people are more likely to get severely ill with COVID-19 compared with non-pregnant people. If you are pregnant, you can receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Getting a COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy can protect you from severe illness from COVID-19.”

These kinds of one-sided statements should be carefully read to consider the political biases of the organization. One has to wonder if they are really concerned about the health of the individual or the health of the whole. I would be very hesitant to recommend a trial vaccine to a pregnant woman when there have not been studies to show that no impact will be made on the mother of the child.

4.  Where did Covid19 originate? An essential question in the vaccine conversation should be a consideration as to where Covid originated. If Covid19 originated in a lab as a way to kill off a part of the communist elderly in China, then that would dedicate who needs the vaccine.  

The idea that a communist country was developing a method to kill off part of its population for population control should be considered and explored. American politicians on the left seem to forget that just a few years ago, communist China limited the number of babies that their people could have and would kill a child if it was born and was above the number that the Government dictated as acceptable. It is fair for the American population to wait to understand where Covid19 began before making health choices about their own health.

These questions and many more still deserve an answer. It is the responsibility of the leaders and press in a free country to answer the fair and honest questions of free people. Until those questions, millions of Americans will still cry out, “give me liberty, or give me the vaccine.” These Americans still choose freedom first.

As we all know, Covid-19 policies have created an interesting array of winners and losers. Restaurants, travel and mall-based retail? Wah, wah. Meanwhile, any company remotely tied to housing, remodeling or recreation has been on absolute fire.

So what if your traditionally slow-growth, low-margin business suddenly had its best year ever by a wide margin? You’d probably think very seriously about trying to sell it.

That is exactly what is happening with the spate of BBQ-related IPOs that are about to pour onto this market.

Are the upcoming initial public offerings of Traeger Pellet Grills and Weber good ideas for your investment portfolio? Be very careful.

First, it’s highly likely they’ve taken the route of public markets because they have nowhere else to go. Truly, who is Traeger’s logical acquirer? In a bygone era, Sears might have represented a possible exit but such buyers no longer exist. Maybe one of the few large competitors in this highly-fragmented industry like Weber? Whoops – they’re going public, too!

Focusing on Weber, what a story they seem to have on their hands, being able to claim 6-month revenue growth rates of over 60%! Wow!

Problem is, IBIS says annual growth of the bbq industry over the last 5 years averaged 4.7%, which means Weber caught lightning in a bottle thanks to this pandemic and they’re trying to cash in. Same with Traeger.

Unfair assessment, you say? Then why are roughly 2/3 of Traeger’s IPO shares being sold by insiders? That’s right, only 1/3 of this offering is to raise working capital for the company. The rest is insiders cashing out.

Hey, I’ll be the first to admit that Traeger grills are pretty cool. And these are familiar names so they may catch a bid based on that familiarity for a while, particularly if this housing market keeps steaming ahead. But by no means are these 10-year investments. If you just can’t help yourself and absolutely have to play with these shares, think more in terms of 10 weeks. Or 10 days.

Truly, how much longer can the explosive growth in our world of economic distortions last? Regardless, is there any way companies like this are going to keep posting 50%+ growth numbers? Pfffffffff.

Heck, as recently as 2019, Weber’s y-o-y revenues declined by 3%. That’s the nature of this industry – a little growth here, a little step back there… slow, stodgy, boring.

Even in Weber’s bounce back year of 2020, when revenues rebounded 15% compared to the prior full year? They made a paltry $88 million on $1.5 billion in revenues. Those are grocery store margins.

Yet despite this industry’s historically slow growth and non-existent margins, Weber’s market cap at IPO next week will be roughly $5 billion, meaning the shares will trade with a P/E of close to 60 like they’re some high-flying tech unicorn! Truly amazing stuff, but par for the course in today’s everything bubble.

As an aside, by the way, don’t even think about looking elsewhere in this sector, like to VELO and its recent announcement that the SPAC is taking BBQ Guys public. Does anyone recall what happened to BBQ retailers in the last economic downturn? If the phrase, “buh-bye,” doesn’t come to mind, you simply weren’t paying attention.

Make no mistake, all these BBQ industry IPOs are ‘greater fool’ investments at their finest. Sorry, but you’re the dumb money the insiders and their private equity backers are asking to buy their shares after one-time growth surges that probably surpassed even their wildest imaginations.

There’s an old saying in poker: if you look around the table and can’t figure out who the fish is, you’re the fish.

In this case, the BBQ company insiders are trying to put all you fish directly on their hot coals.

No, thanks. I’ll have a salad this time instead.

P.S. Yes, this is a new pen name but you probably know me. I’ve a new Twitter profile, too… please consider giving me a follow their and we’ll get this train rolling.

Photo by Martin Boose from FreeImages