

Business
Making Smarter Decisions
How to make smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts (which is nearly all the time)
Annie Duke, a professional gambler, has written an intriguing book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts. The text is great; I took a lot of notes and saved many excerpts:
Life choices we make are bets on a specific path, as distinct from a range of potential alternative futures. Job and relocation decisions are bets. Sales negotiations and contracts are bets. Buying a house is a bet. Ordering the chicken instead of the steak is a bet. Everything is a bet.
Ask someone, “Want to bet?” when they claim something to be true. It puts them in a different place than when they simply state what they believed to be true. Thinking in Bets can help us reshape our approach to the world, and improve all aspects of decision-making in our lives.
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Overview
We humans are disastrously biased in our decision making. We fool ourselves into believing our beliefs whether they are worthy of our trust of not. Our biases systematically impede our decision-making.
Most people don’t actually think through their beliefs. They hear something from a source they hold in high esteem and then maintain that belief. Recognize when you’re in an “echo-chamber” where only viewpoints you’re currently comfortable with are expressed.
We are quick to form beliefs, tend towards absolutes (this is right, that is wrong), and indulge in “motivated reasoning,” seeking out confirmation while ignoring contradictory evidence. Believing is easy; we are wired to believe
Our beliefs impact how we view the world, then how we act, and how we plan for the future. We are loath to update our beliefs, especially when a change would be a challenge to our self-narrative. Our decision-making is only as good as the accuracy of our beliefs, which are hopelessly biased and often wrong.
Because our beliefs are based on past experiences and inputs, it is wise to be purposeful about the inputs and experiences that we have going forward as that will guide our future selves.
“Resulting”
We judge decisions based on how they turn out, known as “resulting,” in which we believe results indicate the quality of our decision: If we succeeded it was a good decision, but if we failed, it was a bad decision.
We guard our self-image via “self-serving bias,” which distorts our view of the world: We take credit for all good outcomes and blame bad luck for all bad outcomes, even when the truth is often shaded in grey.
Resulting ignores the role of luck. When a desired outcome doesn’t occur, it does not always mean it was a poor choice. It could have been bad luck. This insight moves us away from right-wrong thinking, and towards a probabilistic approach to interpreting outcomes, like betting in poker.
So, assess decisions on the basis of how they were made, not how they turned out You can win with a poor decision and lose with a good one. In the long run, it’s the decision-making process that counts.
Stop thinking in certainties and recognize probabilities, and avoid imagining situations as either-or. Most things lie along continuums.
Taking Action
Embrace uncertainty, by thinking in bets. Calibrate your confidence on a more granular level. Rather than say, “I know X with 100% certainty,” express a lesser confidence of, say, 65%. Calibrating preserves our self-narrative if we happen to be wrong, and it also makes us more credible.
Assess outcomes after the fact, through “outcome fielding.” Was an outcome driven by luck or skill, and in what combination? After winning a high profile tournament, for example, a poker player was focused not on basking in glory, but on de-constructing his play, and what he could have done better.
Practice tough love in the service of “truth-seeking.” No whining about how bad luck hurt us. No patting ourselves on the backs. Truth-seeking requires a special kind of contract with yourself.
Listen to arguments from all sides to get a clearer picture of the truth. Observe the world around you and learn from the choices that other people make by observing.
Create a group of individuals who can provide us with feedback on our weaknesses and blind spots. Focus on accuracy, accountability, and openness to diverse views. Court dissent and differing points of view, and take responsibility even when doing so is painful.
Strength in the Moment
We tend to act based on how we are affected right now, rather than how we will feel later. When we reach for that doughnut, rather than for a healthy apple, we’re doing so at the expense of our future self. Employ the 10-10-10 process: what are the consequences of each of my options in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?
Finally, exercise caution after a streak of positive or negative outcomes to avoid becoming emotionally charged in a way that prevents us from thinking clearly.
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Business
Dinesh D’Souza Launching Conservative Business Network to Defund the Left
Why give your money to people who hate you? That’s like tipping your executioner.
Are you a conservative business person? Then check out the Red Referral Network and partner with Dinesh D’Souza by clicking the banner below:
For years, conservative icon Dinesh D’Souza has told his followers that we need to create “parallel economies” and stop funding the left. It’s true, right? Why give your money to people who hate you? That’s like tipping your executioner.
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It is easy to boycott large companies like Nike, Target and Anhauser-Busch, but what about all of the small businesses and companies who take the profits you give them and fund leftist politicians? Think about it, you spend $30,000 on a new roof and your liberal roofer donates $3000 to leftists politicians and they stand in the public square and call you a racist, homophobic, sexist, transphobic insurrectionist! That make NO sense at all.
That’s about to end once and for all. It is time to cut off ALL leftwing businesses from our money. Introducing the Red Referral Network (RRN).
Dinesh has partnered with Motivational Speaker’s Hall of Fame Member Chris Widener to launch an exclusive business network for conservatives in business. There are three primary reasons to join the RRN:
1. Refer business and be referred business by fellow local conservatives. Don’t refer to lefties anymore – refer to those who share your values and beliefs.
2. Get weekly support and encouragement from other conservatives.
3. Get exclusive content each and every week from Dinesh D’Sousa made just for RRN members.
Registration is free and you can find out more about the Red Referral Network by clicking here.
Top Ten Reasons to Join a Networking Group:
Are you a conservative business person? Then check out the Red Referral Network and partner with Dinesh D’Souza by clicking the banner below:
Participating in a business referral network can offer numerous benefits for business professionals. Here are ten reasons why joining such a network can be advantageous:
Lead Generation: Business referral networks provide a structured environment for exchanging leads and referrals. Members can refer potential clients and customers to one another, fostering new business opportunities.
Increased Visibility: Being part of a referral network enhances your visibility within the local business community. As you actively engage and contribute, your business becomes more recognizable, leading to increased brand awareness.
Building Relationships: Networking is all about building relationships. Joining a referral network allows you to connect with like-minded professionals, fostering relationships that can lead to long-term business partnerships and collaborations.
Trust and Credibility: Referrals from trusted sources carry a higher level of credibility. Being a part of a referral network implies a level of trust among members, making the referrals more reliable and effective.
Diverse Skill Sets: Business referral networks often comprise professionals from various industries and backgrounds. This diversity can be advantageous, as it provides access to a wide range of skills, expertise, and perspectives that can benefit your business.
Professional Development: Engaging with other professionals in a referral network provides opportunities for continuous learning and professional development. You can gain insights into industry trends, best practices, and new technologies.
Resource Sharing: Members of a referral network can share resources, such as tools, software, or even office space. This can lead to cost savings and operational efficiencies for all involved.
Positive Influence: Surrounding yourself with motivated and successful individuals can have a positive impact on your own mindset and business strategies. A referral network can serve as a source of inspiration and motivation.
Feedback and Advice: Business referral networks offer a supportive environment where members can seek feedback and advice from experienced professionals. This can be invaluable for overcoming challenges and making informed business decisions.
Community Involvement: Many referral networks are actively involved in community events and charitable activities. Joining such a network allows you to contribute to the community while also enhancing your business’s social responsibility image.
Remember, the success of a business referral network depends on active participation and genuine efforts to contribute to the network. Building relationships and providing value to others are key principles for maximizing the benefits of such networks.
Are you a conservative business person? Then check out the Red Referral Network and partner with Dinesh D’Souza by clicking the banner below:
The world of business is a dynamic and complex arena where success depends on a combination of factors, including strategy, innovation, hard work, and adaptability. While various ideologies shape the landscape of entrepreneurship, conservative capitalists often stand out as exceptionally proficient in the business world. This article explores why conservative capitalists are often more successful in business and highlights the key principles and practices that contribute to their achievements.
I. Strong Embrace of Free Market Principles
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Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” concept: Conservative capitalists firmly believe in the power of a free-market economy, as espoused by the renowned economist Adam Smith. They understand that when individuals are allowed to pursue their self-interest, the overall economy benefits. This principle guides their business decisions, allowing them to capitalize on market forces and competition.
Efficient resource allocation: Conservative capitalists prioritize efficiency in resource allocation, seeking to maximize their assets and investments. This approach enables them to minimize waste, reduce costs, and enhance their competitiveness.
II. Emphasis on Personal Responsibility
Accountability: One of the hallmarks of conservative capitalists is their unwavering commitment to personal responsibility. They believe that individuals, not the government, are responsible for their own success and failures. This mindset encourages prudent decision-making and risk management in business endeavors.
Risk-taking with caution: Conservative capitalists are not averse to taking risks, but they do so cautiously. They thoroughly analyze potential opportunities and pitfalls, ensuring that each risk is calculated and based on sound judgment. This approach minimizes reckless decisions and increases the likelihood of positive outcomes.
III. Limited Government Intervention
Minimal regulatory burden: Conservative capitalists favor minimal government intervention in business affairs. They argue that excessive regulations can stifle innovation and economic growth. By advocating for less government involvement, they create an environment where businesses can thrive and prosper.
Lower taxes: Reduced taxation is a key principle for conservative capitalists. Lower taxes leave more capital in the hands of businesses, enabling them to invest in growth, create jobs, and contribute to economic prosperity.
IV. A Long-term Perspective
Sustainability and stability: Conservative capitalists take a long-term view of their businesses. They prioritize sustainability and stability over short-term gains. This approach allows them to weather economic downturns and build enduring enterprises.
Legacy building: Many conservative capitalists view their businesses as a legacy to be passed down to future generations. This motivates them to make prudent decisions that ensure the longevity and success of their enterprises.
V. Embrace of Traditional Values
Ethical leadership: Conservative capitalists often adhere to strong ethical values in their business practices. This commitment to ethical leadership fosters trust among customers, employees, and partners, which is essential for long-term success.
Respect for traditional institutions: Traditional values, such as family, community, and faith, are highly regarded by conservative capitalists. These values often drive their business decisions, emphasizing the importance of personal relationships and community involvement.
VI. Adaptability and Innovation
Embracing change selectively: While conservative capitalists maintain traditional values, they are not resistant to change. They recognize the importance of adapting to evolving market conditions and technological advancements while staying true to their core principles.
Pragmatic innovation: Innovation is a cornerstone of business success, and conservative capitalists understand this. They invest in research and development and embrace technological advancements when they align with their business goals.
VII. Focus on Frugality
Efficient spending: Conservative capitalists are known for their frugality and conservative financial management. They scrutinize expenses, avoid unnecessary overhead, and prioritize cost-cutting measures, which ultimately leads to higher profitability.
Debt aversion: They tend to be cautious about accumulating debt, preferring to build their businesses on a solid financial foundation. This strategy reduces financial risk and ensures the sustainability of their enterprises.
Conclusion
Conservative capitalists have a strong track record of excelling in the business world due to their adherence to key principles and practices that promote success. Their commitment to free market principles, personal responsibility, limited government intervention, long-term planning, and ethical values sets them apart as formidable entrepreneurs. While every ideology has its merits and drawbacks, the conservative capitalist approach to business has consistently proven effective in achieving profitability, stability, and sustainability.
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