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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

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In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



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News

Can the Party of “No” Beat the Party of “Free?”

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Have you noticed the rhetoric, “At least we have the House to stop some of Biden’s crazy plans!” The GOP’s keyword is “STOP.” Have you noticed that the Democrats have positioned themselves as the party of more “FREE” gifts from the government?

The GOP wants to cut budgets, cut government jobs, stop abortions, stop illegal aliens crossing the border, stop election cheating, stop student loan giveaways….and the list goes on. The Democrats have effectively positioned the GOP as the party of “NO!”

With a small margin in the House, Biden’s veto, and a likely Democrat Senate virtual majority, the Republicans face a difficult challenge. How do you shape a narrative that can win in 2024 and minimize the damage that the Democrats can do until then?

It starts by capitalizing on an issue that Republicans have been reticent to exploit-school choice. Have you noticed that the youngest voters went Democrat in every state? We have let the Democrats control public schools. Teacher unions have used their money and influence to ensure adequate funding. The result is clear-the youth under their influence have rejected the responsible values of their parents. The young lack confidence in their ability to make free-enterprise work, and they like government entitlements, rent relief, and promises of student loan forgiveness. In short, they have settled for the party of “FREE”-the Democrats!

School choice wasn’t even part of the Republican’s Commitment to America. Our leaders missed its role in Youngkin’s win in Virginia. It’s time to start becoming the party of “YES” to school choice. Many minority parents feel trapped in underperforming schools, and they want better schools for their children. Conservatives want an end to the indoctrination of liberal values that public schools provide. In short, it’s time to embrace school choice as a central focus in the GOP’s 2024 campaign.

There is no question that the issue of abortion also played a key role in impacting the Republican gains in the November election. The Democrats were able to turn fears over the Supreme Court reversal of Roe vs Wade into voter turnout in key races. It’s time to be the party of “YES” to reasonable limits on abortion and responsible support for adoption for unwanted children. Most Americans are supportive of reasonable limits on abortion. House Republicans could introduce federal legislation to make abortion after the first trimester illegal. Let the states take the role of considering even more restrictive measures. Make Democrats the party of “NO” to sane abortion limits.

Be the party of “YES” to government support for organizations that provide vulnerable women with support and material resources to help them consider both parenting and adoption. Democrats would have women believe that abortion is their only option. There are parents ready to adopt, and it can be a beautiful experience for all involved. It’s time to convince women to support life for their unborn child by providing loving options instead of trying to force the total elimination of abortion. Abortion disproportionately impacts minorities. To meet the needs of the future, America needs all the births our citizens can bring into this world.

Say “YES” to responsible citizenship-every citizen working to find a satisfying career in pursuit of their true American Dreams instead of settling for government dependence. The Republican message must be strong and clear-we belief in all Americans’ ability to gain their mojo and take back their future. There is no future in dependence-Getting “Free” entitlements are not “Freedom!” Let people know that America is still where the “pursuit of happiness” is not just something to justify a revolution. It is what has made America great and the envy of the world. It is by improving your skills and earning advancements or starting one’s own business that true dreams are achieved. No citizen should settle when she can soar.

Say “YES” to a secure border and legal immigration. America remains the land of opportunity, and we need immigrants. We don’t need millions of illegal immigrants unvetted and unprepared to add value to our country. Stand for completing the building of our Southern border wall and increasing our focus on expanding legal immigration. Republicans must not be against immigrants; we are only against welcoming illegal immigrants who do not honor our immigration process. Americans want a secure border, and they want to be known as a country that welcomes immigrants. Have the strength and wisdom to stand for both.

Say “YES” to law and order. Stand in support of law enforcement and accountability for criminals. Yes, we want fair treatment of all Americans, but citizens are tired of criminals having the upper hand. They want to feel safe in their homes and their businesses. We need DAs who will prosecute criminals instead of letting them go. There is a simple formula for the GOP to reflect most Americans-“Do the crime and do the time!”

Say “YES” to energy independence and an all of the above approach to energy policy. Instead of saying “No” to climate change paranoia, affirm the importance of developing all of our energy resources to be independent of foreign dependence. Capitalizing on all available energy options will also strike a blow at inflation, since the cost of energy impacts all facets of our economy.

If you want to beat the “Party of FREE,” we need to become the “Party of YES” to the things that Americans truly value. It’s time to begin preparing a narrative that can win in 2024. May it be so.

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Elections

Three Things Republicans MUST Do Now

The Republicans have a very important job to do!

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Now that the Republicans have taken the House, they have a few VERY important jobs to do. In this short five minute video, Chris Widener, Founder of PolitiCrossing, makes the case that there are three things the Republicans must do to be successful through 2024 and take back the Senate and the White House as well.

1. Investigate
2. Defund
3. Cast a Positive Vision for America

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