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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

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In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



 
 
 

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THIS is the Only Thing That Will Save America – and it isn’t Trump…

America stands at a critical juncture in its history, where the need for revival has never been more urgent.

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America’s Desperate Need for Revival: A Call to Spiritual Awakening

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In the heart of every Christian beats a fervent desire for revival—a profound awakening of spiritual consciousness that transcends the bounds of human effort and transforms nations from within. As an evangelical, I firmly believe that America stands at a critical juncture in its history, where the need for revival has never been more urgent. In a world inundated with political strife, economic uncertainty, and military tensions, it is clear that these worldly solutions alone cannot heal the deep-seated spiritual malaise afflicting our nation. Instead, what America desperately needs is a revival—an outpouring of divine grace that can only be sparked by a genuine spiritual awakening.

The history of revivalism is rich with examples of how God has intervened in human affairs to revive the hearts of individuals and nations alike. From the Great Awakening of the 18th century to the Welsh Revival of 1904, these movements have demonstrated the power of God to transform societies from the inside out. As the renowned preacher Jonathan Edwards once proclaimed, “The only hope of a nation lies in the righteousness of the Church.” Indeed, the Church has a sacred duty to be a beacon of light in a world engulfed by darkness, and revival is the means by which this light can shine brightest.

The Wesley brothers, John and Charles, were instrumental figures in the First Great Awakening, preaching a message of personal salvation and holiness that ignited the hearts of countless individuals. John Wesley famously declared, “Give me one hundred preachers who fear nothing but sin and desire nothing but God, and I care not whether they be clergymen or laymen, they alone will shake the gates of Hell and set up the kingdom of Heaven upon Earth.” Such was the fervor of their conviction that it sparked a revival that swept across continents, leaving in its wake a legacy of transformed lives and renewed communities.

Similarly, George Whitefield, with his impassioned sermons and tireless evangelism, played a pivotal role in the First Great Awakening, drawing immense crowds and stirring hearts with his proclamation of the Gospel. His words still resonate today: “The soul is most affected when it is exercised with the most weighty and important matters.” In an age marked by superficiality and distraction, Whitefield’s emphasis on the eternal significance of the soul serves as a timely reminder of what truly matters.

Charles Spurgeon, the “Prince of Preachers,” carried on the legacy of revivalism into the 19th century with his powerful sermons and unwavering commitment to biblical truth. He once proclaimed, “A time will come when instead of shepherds feeding the sheep, the church will have clowns entertaining the goats.” Spurgeon’s words ring true in an era where entertainment often takes precedence over edification, reminding us of the importance of staying true to the Gospel message even in the face of opposition.

Leonard Ravenhill, a 20th-century revivalist known for his uncompromising message and fervent prayers, echoed the urgent call for revival in his generation: “Today’s church wants to be raptured from responsibility.” Ravenhill’s words serve as a sobering reminder that revival requires more than mere enthusiasm or emotionalism—it demands a willingness to confront sin and seek God’s face with humility and sincerity.

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In the midst of America’s current challenges, it is tempting to place our trust in political leaders, economic policies, or military strength to secure our future. However, history has shown time and again that such worldly solutions are ultimately fleeting and insufficient. As the psalmist declares, “Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the Lord our God” (Psalm 20:7). Only through a genuine spiritual awakening can America experience the lasting transformation it so desperately needs.

Revival begins with repentance — a turning away from sin and a turning towards God in humble submission. As the apostle James admonishes, “Draw near to God, and he will draw near to you. Cleanse your hands, you sinners, and purify your hearts, you double-minded” (James 4:8). It is only when we humble ourselves before God and acknowledge our need for His mercy and grace that revival can take root in our hearts and spread throughout our land.

As evangelical Christians, we have a solemn responsibility to pray fervently for revival and to live lives that reflect the transformative power of the Gospel. We must be willing to stand boldly for truth in a culture that often rejects it, to love sacrificially in a world consumed by selfishness, and to proclaim the hope of Christ in a society plagued by despair. In doing so, we can be agents of revival in our homes, our churches, and our communities, trusting in the promise of Scripture that “if my people who are called by my name humble themselves, and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and heal their land” (2 Chronicles 7:14).

In conclusion, America’s need for revival has never been more urgent, and the time for spiritual awakening is now. Let us heed the call of history’s revivalists and seek God’s face with renewed fervor and dedication. May we never lose sight of the transformative power of the Gospel and the hope it offers for our nation’s future. As the hymn writer William Cowper famously penned, “Where is the blessedness I knew when first I saw the Lord? Where is the soul-refreshing view of Jesus and His word?” Let us pray earnestly for a revival of such blessedness in our time, trusting in the faithfulness of God to answer our prayers and heal our land.

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How did this man in the shadows get Biden into a blackmail situation?

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