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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

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In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

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The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



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The Intolerant Left and Their Sign Charade

Having been sheltered for decades in the liberal mainstream media bubble, Liberal yard sign bearers have a twisted world view

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Drive through nearly any town in America, during an election season or not. You’ll see signs on front lawns or in picture windows proclaiming, “Hate has no home here,” “Science is real,” “Black lives matter,” “Love trumps hate,” “Love is the answer,” etc. On car bumpers you’ll see stickers proclaiming, “No hate in my state.”

These virtue-signalers are quick to post BLM signs, just so you know that they are sufficiently ‘woke.’ They fervently believe that all conservatives and anyone who voted for Trump are a hate-filled, despicable lot, who dislike immigrants, children, old people, dogs, and clean air.

Having been sheltered for decades in the liberal mainstream media bubble, these yard sign bearers have a twisted world view. For them, all news and information arrives heavily filtered through the New York Times, Washington Post, L.A. Times, Chicago Tribune, AP, Reuters, NPR, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, etc.

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Untold Looney Contentions

The Left erroneously espouses that President Trump hates immigrants, a contention that is simply wrong: Unlike Biden, he didn’t want endless floods of illegal immigrants arriving, especially when orchestrated by Leftist groups continually seeking to undermine U.S. sovereignty.

Under Biden, illegal immigrants storm our borders and overrun our facilities. Contrary to Leftist drivel, they account for a disproportionately high amount of crime. They jump ahead of people who’ve been waiting in line legally for months, or years, to become U.S. citizens.

The misguided Left contended that President Trump is an anti-Semite. This is ridiculous on its face, as Ivanka Trump Kushner, his politically prominent daughter, converted to Judaism to marry a Jew, and her three children – his three grandchildren – are all Jewish. Moreover, Trump’s support for Israel is unyielding.

While Biden is pure of heart to the Left, they would have you believe that Donald Trump is a racist who harms Black people. Yet, before he ran for president, he was honored on numerous occasions by the NAACP and other African-American groups. Amazingly, the nano-second he ran for president, that all changed!

Claiming Much, Knowing Little

The Left always knows best, even when they know little, which is most of the time. If members of the Left occasionally proceeded beyond the mainstream liberal media bubble, in which they are firmly ensconced, and read more widely, these cloistered folks might realize that it is Democrats, ‘progressives’, and liberals, in general, who promulgate most of the hate in society today.

‘Love trumps hate’ is a pleasant thought, and an intriguing notion. Thus, it is shameful that Leftists are so venomous. Here are a few items and issues, out of scores more, that many of those on the Left loath:

Individuals and group who disagree with them politically, acknowledging the rights of the unborn, fair and effective voter I.D. laws, acknowledging the cerebral differences between men and women, encountering acts of patriotism, free speech on campus (unless of course they agree with it), merit-based college acceptance,  anyone who does not conform to political ‘correctness,’ maintaining U.S. sovereignty via secure borders, and African Americans who deign not to be Democrats.

They also dislike anyone who is deeply religious except Muslims, news features about illegal immigrant crime, school vouchers, returning power to state and local school boards, anyone who runs for, or wins, office as a Republican or Libertarian, and seeing 20,000+ people at Trump rallies (peaceful protests), with thousands more outside who wanted to attend — when Biden drew 10 to 50 people, if that many.

Not Tolerant Compared to Conservatives

Pew researchers found that liberals actually are less tolerant than conservatives based on liberal’s tendency to “unfriend” or to stop following someone a social media site when their viewpoints are challenged.

“Roughly four-in-ten consistent liberals on Facebook (44%) indicated they have blocked or de-friended someone” because they “disagreed with something that person posted about politics.” Only “31% of consistent conservatives” and 26% of Facebook users overall have acted similarly.

Could their ingrained lack of tolerance be the driving force behind their constant virtue-signaling? Yup. Liberals seek to feign that within them intolerance reigns.

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The Right’s Love Affair With Kyrsten Sinema and the Elephant in the Room

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Many on the right are breathlessly talking about Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona as if she’s the next Ronald Reagan, fawning all over her, commenting on how beautiful she is and how they’d like to see her on a vice presidential ticket for president. It’s true she’s provided crucial assistance blocking radical leftist bills or watering them down. But overall, her voting record isn’t that much different than most Democrats. 

 

In 2018, when she first ran for the U.S. Senate, her lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union in the House of Representatives was 13. It’s only gone up to 14.59 in 2020, and is lower than it was in 2013. Similarly, The Heritage Foundation’s lifetime ranking of Sinema is 9. The truth is, she has merely opposed her own party on a few high-profile bills. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has voted against the party far more often, 8%, compared to Sinema’s miniscule 2.8%. As of June 7, she voted with President Joe Biden 100% of the time.

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Democrats have been scrambling the past few years to explain Sinema’s aberrations, deliberately leaving out the most obvious explanation since it goes against their mantra — she has to in order to ensure reelection in a red state. It’s essentially the elephant in the room. They don’t want to admit that, since they’ve been falsely claiming that Arizona is turning purple or blue. Admitting Sinema votes with the Republicans because she’s worried about reelection might make it look like they admitted there was election fraud in 2020.

 

Politico said Sinema’s dissenting votes are “something of a mystery to her Democratic colleagues,” quoting numerous Democrats who said they are confused about her behavior. CNN dared to acknowledge the real reason, but said Sinema is mistaken — doubtful considering how bright Sinema is. “Part of what may be happening is that Sinema thinks that Arizona is a redder state than it actually is.” 

 

While it’s true that Sinema is no longer as radical as she was in her early days in the Arizona Legislature, when she was awarded the Vladimir I. Lenin award by the Arizona Federation of Taxpayers for being the furthest left legislator, her record since supposedly becoming a moderate in the House of Representatives is still pretty bad. 

 

She voted to convict Donald Trump in both impeachment trials. She urged her colleagues to vote for the highly partisan January 6 commission to investigate the events at the U.S. Capitol (she didn’t vote herself, citing “a personal family matter.” She worked to pass the radical DREAM Act. NARAL rated her voting record on abortion 100% in 2020 and her record on the Second Amendment is about as bad.

 

She fooled people by campaigning on a platform that sounds very centrist, avoiding all mention of the Democratic Party. She spent hundreds of thousands of dollars while running for Congress on TV ads that are so vanilla it was impossible to tell whether she was a Republican or Democrat. 

 

People can’t point to much that she’s done to oppose her party other than quibble over Biden’s Build Back Better bill and oppose abolishing the filibuster. She likely chose those issues since they are so high-profile, making her look more moderate than she really is. And there are a few more issues, such as illegal immigration and overturning Dodd-Frank, where she’s bucked the party. 

 

Sinema also seems determined to fill the role of Arizona’s late Sen. John McCain as a maverick. If he could keep getting reelected by voting against his party on a few high-profile issues, she probably figures it’s a safe move for her. 

 

Yes, we can be grateful to Sinema for blocking far left bills from her party. But she’s only doing it in order to get reelected in a red state, deep down she is still a lefty and not anyone suitable for president. Voting for someone because they’re “hot” is a terrible reason. You may as well vote for actress Alyssa Milano, who is considering running for Congress.

 

Arizona is about to get a test of how blue it’s become in the other Senate seat up for election in 2022 held by Democrat Mark Kelly. It’s considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats in the Senate. Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a former director from The Goldwater Institute who is championing election integrity, is challenging him and widely expected to take the seat. Similarly, newscaster turned political candidate Kari Lake, who identifies as a “Trump Republican,” is expected to replace the more moderate Doug Ducey as governor. 

 

People point to Californians fleeing their state and moving to Arizona in droves, but only 19% of them are Democrats. It’s mainly Republicans fleeing, they are not turning Arizona blue. If anything, Arizona is becoming redder as Republicans widen their lead in voter registration. Sinema is very intelligent and understands this. Don’t be fooled by her. We can do a lot better for vice president — like a Republican. 

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