Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models ⋆ Politicrossing
Connect with us

News

Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

Published

on

In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

Trending on PolitiCrossing.com: A Compound National Fracture

The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

– – – – –

 

We'd love to hear your thoughts about this article. Please take a minute to share them in the comment section by clicking here. Or carry the conversation over on your favorite social network by clicking one of the share buttons below.


Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 
 
 

Join the conversation!

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.



News

A Compound National Fracture

Our 246-year experiment in representative democracy is rapidly fraying at the edges

Published

on

If Martin Luther King, Jr. were alive today, he’d be appalled at the fractionalization of our nation. No one can guarantee the USA will exist for the duration of the decade, let alone the next several years.

Our 246-year experiment in representative democracy is rapidly fraying at the edges, and not merely because of anarchists and agitators funded by one-world globalists, or because of perpetually contested elections. Big money has always been the controlling factor in Washington D.C. Today, the levels of influence peddling are unprecedented and getting worse.

Evaporating Middle Ground

Democrats and Republicans once sought to join together on critical issues for the good of the Union, at least some of the time. Today partisan politics predominates. We now approach $30 trillion in debt and $164 trillion in unfunded liabilities, equal to 492,000 per citizen, This a level that is unconscionable and represents theft of our children’s and grandchildren’s heritage. Concurrently, Communist China operates in the foreground to undermine our every institution.

The sentiment that the U.S. is a global force for good is a sentiment shared by at least half of our friends around the globe, and even begrudgingly by our enemies after the dust settled — think Germany and Japan — but the sentiment cannot be as potent when there is constant internal strife. Domestic dissension and sedition, the lobbying stranglehold, and treason has left our friends befuddled and our enemies bemused and emboldened.

Meanwhile, the world is suffering, beyond the ravages of the coronavirus and in ways that few people could have predicted. More refugees populate the earth than ever before. Human trafficking, often a euphemism for sexual slavery, is a blight on “civilized” societies. The world population is now approaching 8.0 billion people up from 5.0 billion people in 1985.

Madness in Motion

In the U.S. whether or not the libstream press will address the reality, the waves of illegal immigrants from 2008 to 2022 have strained our resources. Local and state governments are bursting at the fiscal seams, while Biden and crew keep the floodgates open.

Crime is rampant among communities with an influx of illegal aliens. A visit to the Drug Enforcement Administration website reveals the country of origin of those criminals most wanted by the D.E.A. in cities across America. Hint: Overwhelming it is Mexico.

Despite record amounts spent on education, our schools were already failing, before the current shutdowns. Minority academic underachievement has been near-constant for decades, even in the most “progressive” communities with the most “progressive-thinking” teachers. Hordes of immigrant children, primarily hailing from Latin America, further strain school districts.

Splitting along Ideological Lines

On the East Coast and the West Coast, deep pockets of liberalism prevail. In the center of the country, conservatism prevails. Communities are organizing along political divisions and feel “the other side” simply doesn’t get it: espousing policies, theories, and beliefs contrary to the best interests of our civilization.

I don’t wish to reside in a land dominated by a polarized news media, the current Senate and Congressional leaders, billionaire “progressives” bent on censorship, sell-out corporations, a two-tier justice system, and a school system designed to poison the minds of our children.

The U.S. might fracture and become two or three countries. The geography for such a partition, of course, is not convenient. How do you combine California, Oregon, and Washington, with New England and the left-leaning Mid-Atlantic States? They are joined together by ideology, while thousands of miles apart. And, if we the U.S. were to split into two nations, beyond the inconvenient geography many problems would occur from legal, political, and trade standpoints.

No Unity, No Future

In any case, we cannot continue in the current mode. The far-left is pulling away from everyone else in the nation, even from patriotic rank and file Democrat. Many people would just as soon let the rabble-rousers go: What is the point of seeking to maintain the Union with people who fervently wish to “re-educate” you?

All the above points to the reality that the U.S. as we know it could soon be irretrievable.

– – – – –

 

Continue Reading

Life

Finding Meaning in Daily Activities, Even Now

You are creating your life every day; every choice you make determines the quality of your life

Published

on

If you’re like me, each day you shudder to think what new, nation-destroying ploy, or blunder, the Biden administration will foist upon us next. In our own lives, nevertheless, while awaiting November 2022 and the chance to take back the Senate and House, we have the opportunity to find meaning nearly each day.

In her book, My Grandfather’s Blessings, Rachel Remen tells a story about a doctor who had to deliver a baby in the hallway of the emergency room area. He had delivered other babies but not like this. While swabbing the baby’s face, she opened her eyes and looked right at him: he was the first person she had ever seen.

This experience changed the doctor’s way of proceeding. He regarded this as sacred moment. He remembered why he chose this line of work. He felt validated. His cynicism fell away. He became more invigorated, more inspired, and started to interact with more of his patients and his co-workers. Soon, he was invited to events he had never participated in before. His whole world opened up.

Trending on PolitiCrossing.com: A Compound National Fracture

Now, he seeks such moments constantly.

A Capacity that Builds

Finding meaning is a capacity that we build, like a muscle. When you first started in your current career position, finding meaning was not an issue. You were excited. There was so much you wanted to do. You had all kinds of plan. Then, years passed.

Little by little you became jaded perhaps. Why did I choose this line of work? Why can’t I find competent help? Why are customer or clients so demanding?

It is possible, even now in this time of turmoil, to reinvent yourself on the job, to rediscover what initially attracted you to this profession and what the current possibilities might be. Sometimes the re-awakening is triggered by attending a conference or convention, taking a course, reading a vital book, or spending time with a colleague or peer.

Goodbye to Yesterday

Today and the days that follow do not have to be extensions of what came before. You do not have to proceed into the future looking through a rear view mirror. A world of choices awaits, even if in the same old position you’ve been holding down for years.

Will you make new choices? And what will drive those choices?

Discovering or rediscovering meaning is about getting clear on what’s most important to you and aligning your choices with those priorities. It’s about living and working with intention instead of operating on autopilot or by default, where one day looks exactly like the next.

So, What Matters Right Now?

Start by identifying what’s most important to you …today, not what was important five, ten, or 20 years. Is it creativity, or perhaps collaboration? Maybe it’s impact or flexibility?

Next, identify what professional – and this might be different than your current profession! – and personal goals align with those priorities. What does living or working more creativity look like? If, say, collaboration matters to you, how can you incorporate more collaboration into the work you do?

From here, you’ll want to pinpoint actions or choices that support those goals. Where are your current choices in or out of alignment with what you’ve identified as most important? What new, more intentional choices can you make?

Each and Every Day

Consider this: You are creating your life every day. Every choice you make, action or inaction, determines the quality of your life. If not now, when: Making the choice to live and work with intention and in alignment is the key to cultivating a life of meaning and fulfillment.

– – – – –

 

 

Continue Reading

 

Our Newsletter

Become a Politicrossing insider: Sign up for our free email newsletter, and we'll make sure to keep you in the loop.

Sites We Like

Our Newsletter

Become a PolitiCrossing insider: Sign up for our free email newsletter, and we'll make sure to keep you in the loop.

Trending

Politicrossing
 
Send this to a friend