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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

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In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

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The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



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Conservative Justices are Still in Danger. Joe Biden Could Change That Today

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United States Supreme Court

Just because the Supreme Court ruling that overturns Roe v. Wade has finally been issued, it doesn’t mean the lives of the court’s conversative justices are any safer from pro-abortion extremists.

The President could immediately use the bully pulpit to minimize any threat to the lives of those sitting on the bench. It’s something he should have done weeks ago but should certainly do in the wake of the Dobbs. v. Jackson ruling.

Here’s the question that needs to be asked of President Biden or his spokesperson today:

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“As you know, a man with the intent to kill Justice Kavanaugh was arrested outside his home a few weeks ago. The pro-choice group, Jane’s Revenge, has committed many recent acts of violence and is now threatening a night of rage in response to today’s SCOTUS ruling. If, God forbid, a pro-choice extremist were to assassinate a sitting justice, how would the President think about filling such a vacancy?”

That answer should be simple:

“Obviously, this is a horrible hypothetical which reasonable Americans of all parties hope never comes to fruition. That said, it’s a fair question given today’s heated political climate and one he has thought about deeply. In such a terrible situation, the President would nominate a new appointee that looks as much like the deceased justice as possible. Beliefs, age, temperament – all of it. Were a conservative justice to suffer such harm, the President would ask Republicans to find that matching replacement, whom he would then nominate. Those rare, few extremists who might think to do harm to sitting members of the court must know they will never gain a political advantage through such an act of violence. I would hope that leading Republicans would make a similar pledge regarding the next time they hold the White House, that this thinking will become the unwritten and well understood rule here in D.C.. It is one of the few concepts that members of both parties should be able to commit to with full voice.”

This message has to be plain and, given the political climate, it must be stated ASAP.

Would a Biden white house make such a statement? Doubtful, given the left’s tacit support of the violence it likes through its refusal to condemn Jane’s Revenge, BLM riots, etc.

So be it. If Joe Biden won’t answer the question clearly, it should then be forced upon him. How?

By asking the same hypothetical of all leading national GOP figures. Take this same question straight to Trump, DeSantis, Noem, Haley, etc. and let’s see what they say.

I have a lot of hope they would all answer that question correctly and convincingly, but let’s find out.

Joe Biden told us he would be a unifying figure. Is he capable of finally delivering on that promise for the first time, at a moment when it’s needed most?

*Photo credit: @davidlat at FreeImages

P.S. I haven’t written in a while but these articles have aged pretty darn well, if I do say so myself:

BBQs Cook Fish, Too — Beware the Weber, Trager IPOs

When the Market Crashes, There is Only One Place to Hide

I’ll be back with more on markets soon…

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Tech Tools Leading to Our Fast-Forward Future

Researchers will likely develop nearly every tech tool you’ve seen in science-fiction movies and television

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Lowell Catlett, a retired professor in Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, observes that all the high tech products on your desk and in your home will soon be antiques from a capability stand point. The almighty chip grows smaller and more powerful, and thanks to advanced microscopics, they’re proceeding towards a time in which the chip will be no thicker than a fraction of a human hair. In fact, microscopic motors today are no thicker than a human hair!

A World of Marvels

Scientists and engineers will likely soon develop nearly every technology you’ve ever seen in sci-fi movies, Superman comics, and all of the versions of Star Trek. Many miraculous breakthroughs are available now, but simply are not cost-effective for the masses. Existing sunglasses – far beyond the ill-fated Google Glass – allow you to watch any television show while you’re wearing them, wherever you are.

As “sun glass” technology is perfected, future models can be built right into your eye. You’ll automatically have protection from sun glare as daylight levels change. Laser technology in sunglasses for U.S. Air Force pilots will enable them to fire missiles or operate plane controls through their eye movements!

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Professor Catlett says, “Once you combine laser and computer technology, you’re able to read smart books – books that know when you’ve lingered on a word and hence, don’t understand its meaning.” So, then and there, while you’ve got your magic sunglasses on and are reading this book, a synonym pops up on the screen.

Instant Updates

Well-funded fire and police departments will equip each of their officers with such sunglasses to instantaneously give them updated information in the field. A firefighter entering a burning building could be told to turn left to safety, rather than right. A police officer could be told that the bridge is out 50 yards ahead and to take a hard right into the sandbank.

One day, politicians will be fitted with such technology. A new algorithm for identifying thumb prints, ten times faster than what currently exists, is nearly ready. Hence, about 30 seconds after you look at someone across a room his name will spell out in the corner of one of your lenses. No more forgetting old what’s-his-name.

Every sales force worth its salt will be outfitted with such lenses. Imagine, you walk into a new company, you don’t know a soul, and soon enough you’re greeting everyone by his/her first name. Until the technology is widely known, you’ll be regarded as some type of wizard.

Think Your Way Through It

The electronic headband, an emerging product, allows you to think your way to everything you want to do in your home. Sitting in your armchair, you’ll be able to lock the doors. You’ll be able to start your coffee maker. Want the television on or off? You’ve got it. Same with the lights. Refrigerator door. Windows up or down.

If you want to write a letter to your sister in Des Moines, you’ll only need to think the letter. You’ll be able to “program” your personal computer, write, and e-mail the message simply through your thoughts.

Soon, jet pilots flying billion dollar planes will be able to sit in the cockpit, think about what they want to do next, and have the plane be totally responsive. “Ultimately,” says Catlett, “machinery will be totally user-friendly. No instructions, no need to speak, no need to do anything, just think what you want to do.”

The Ubiquitous Computer

The world will enter a stage of the “ubiquitous computer.” Computers will be all around you, anywhere you go, built into the side of walls. They’ll be so powerful and all encompassing that they’ll be virtually invisible.

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