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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models
No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud
In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.
Bound to Be Wrong Sometime
In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss
Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.
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The 13 Keys
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.
Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?
12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.
13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.
Bonus Points
If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.
One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.
So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.
Unprecedented Cheating
Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.
Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.
As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.
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Thanksgiving: that joyous time of the year when families get together, have a wonderful dinner, catch up on what everyone other is doing, give thanks for all that they have, and perhaps watch some football.
Up for the Challenge?
This Thanksgiving might prove to be a challenge for many people. For one, the cost of the turkey, the bird traditionally served, in some locals cost between 50% to 80% more than last year, and turkey was already expensive.
Among your relatives a few might be vegans or vegetarians. If you have a vegan enforcer in the family, this person will rail on and on against eating meat, and about how turkeys have lives just like we do.
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One of your vegan or vegetarian relatives might offer a discourse on how cranberries should be harvested a different way, the dangers of turkey stuffing, and the problem with vegetables that you might be serving, the risk of having too many starches – potatoes or rice – and the evils of wine, beer, and other alcoholic drinks.
Topics Worth Avoiding
The politics to consider abound. Since roughly half of the country votes Democrat and half votes Republican, the odds are overwhelming that you’re going to have somebody with opposing politics at the table. During Trump’s years as president, many families had to navigate around the topic of the presidency, prevailing policies. and so on.
Today, while there’s no question that Joe Biden is completely inane as leader, the same delicate navigation needs to occur. As miraculous as this might seem, some on the left actually approve of what Biden has been doing. Note: don’t be concerned about the Bidens going hungry. With all those under-the-table payment from Ukraine and China, they can EASILY afford a huge, expensive turkey with all of the trimmings.
If you can avoid discussing the eight million invaders illegally crossing our borders, rampant inflation, the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, the crisis in Israel and potential for World War III, drag time story hour for children, transgenderism, the bogus lawsuits against Donald Trump, the unending crimes of Hunter Biden, the payola to Joe Biden, FBI corruption, the historic unpopularity and ineptness of Kamala Harris, and about 30 or so other topics, your dinner should go smoothly. Enjoy!
A huge current wrinkle on the political scene is that recent surveys reveal at least one-quarter of Democrats actually approve of Hamas, atrocities and all, and side with Palestine on all issues large and small. They believe that Israel is an apartheid state and that Jews are today’s Nazis. Apparently they’ve never visited Israel and have no Jewish friends.
Depending on how many Democrats attend your Thanksgiving gathering, if it’s four or more, mathematically speaking you have a decent chance that one is a pro-Hamas Democrat. Wooo… Now, you really have to stay clear of current issues or your dinner table might be as inflamed verbally as the Middle East is with armaments.
Insufferable Stuffing
After everyone is stuffed with turkey, vegeburgers, or whatever the people who like rabbit food eat, you might sit in the den and turn on a football game. Quickly, you’ll have a stark reminder of how far political correctness has infected society.
If the Washington Commanders are playing, it’s hard to forget that they used to be called the Washington Redskins until the wokesters among us demanded that the name must be changed. Not so ironically, 90% of native Americans actually want the name Washington Redskins reinstalled, and currently are petitioning for it.
In baseball, the Cleveland Indians “had” to be renamed to the Cleveland Guardians. Potentially, there’s no end of this malarkey. Should the Minnesota Vikings change their name? After all, people from Scandinavia might object to the term “Vikings.” While we’re at it, consider college basketball. The Wake Forest University Demon Deacons are due for a name change, if you’re on the Left. So, too, the Duke University Blue Devils, the Arizona University Aztecs, and on and on.
Landmines to Side Step
With all these potential land mines to side step, and all the ways that otherwise pleasant conversations on a pleasant day could occur, you have to be on guard.
Nevertheless, I wish you and yours a happy Thanksgiving. May you survive the day, fully intact, and ready to have a decent Black Friday.
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Military
Biden Boondoggles Imperil the U.S. and the World
The Biden Administration is the picture of futility and incompetence, mixed with corruption and persecution of its political opponents
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On my last day following a long sojourn abroad, I met a wonderful woman from North Dallas, had dinner with her, and memorized her email address.
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When I arrived home the next day, I emailed her to see if she had had a decent trip back. A couple of minutes later, my email bounced back to me as undeliverable. Realizing my mistake of failing to write down her email address or the spelling of her last name, over several weeks I tried numerous alternative methods at length for finding that information, but with no success.
I had not handled it right and I could not later correct the mistake. You’ve long heard the phrase by the late, legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden, “If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?” I would add, will you have the opportunity to correct the damage done or even to try again?
Macro Level Bungles
It’s hard to even imagine the frustration and problems for all of us considering the never-ending missteps we watch every day from our president!
Biden and company have engaged in macro-level failures for nearly three years now. Their repeated failures to take early appropriate steps, domestically and internationally, has had serious ramifications for the nation and the world.
In chain-like fashion, their ineptness, unintentional and intentional, has spun out of control and led to one unpalatable situation after another. Then they spend untold labor hours and multi-billions of dollars, not to mention American lives, seeking to correct what they could not get right in the first place.
The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan caused the loss of American lives and $85 billion dollars worth of military equipment to the Taliban. This ‘gift’ is ultimately finding its way to our enemies throughout the region and, arguably, globally. It also has signaled to the rest of the world, particularly Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad, that American military effectiveness is questionable.
As a result of not adequately planning the withdrawal from Afghanistan, as President Trump had already outlined, the Biden Administration has been scrambling ever since. Following our Afghanistan withdrawal Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under a false pretext, and the resulting multi-billions we have spent propping up Ukraine, are major unfortunate results.
Middle East Madness
Another result of our ineptness is the spate of attacks, now several dozen, on U.S. Armed Forces throughout the Middle East following the barbaric Hamas attack on Israel.
China’s forays into the Middle East and its support of Iran further imperil Israel and, by extension, the U.S. In considering the Biden Administration, China is emboldened. They are in partnership with Russia ostensibly for one reason: to hasten our declining power. They have ramped up spying on us via “weather balloons,” university “research centers,” exchange “students,” industrial spying, and, of late, the influx of more than 17,000 Chinese nationals at our southern border – all single men of military age.
Because the Biden Administration intentionally has not secured the southern border it has subjected American citizens to crime, fentanyl addiction, and massive numbers of deaths, as well as bursting federal, state, and municipal budgets in the attempt to house, feed, and safeguard swarming numbers of illegal immigrants.
Biden’s porous border policies have invited terrorists, weakened any notion of U.S. homeland security, heightened child trafficking, accelerated drug cartel activity, and aided gang-related connections throughout our county.
Poor Planning, Execution and Follow Up
Across the board, in examining the policies and programs of the Biden Administration and how poorly they’ve been designed and initiated, it is now apparent that everything they do today represents one attempted, hopeless ‘correction’ after another.
These attempted corrections are long drawn out, invariably with no end in sight. Whether it is on the world stage or domestically, each boondoggle after another leads to protracted, expensive, questionable attempts to resolve what didn’t need to occur in the first place.
It is not an exaggeration: the entire Biden Administration is the picture of futility and incompetence, mixed with corruption and persecution of its political opponents. This is no way to run a country or display to the world how an effective representative republic operates. It is no way to deter our enemies from taking bold steps. It is no way to guide us safely into the future.
Indeed, the entire world is now less safe.
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