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Cheating Overturns Presidential Forecasting Models

No prediction formula can be effective in the face of massive election fraud

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In 1981, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Bound to Be Wrong Sometime

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump would lose in 2020. According to his analysis, Trump only possessed six of the 13 keys listed below, and failed to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss

Was the professor’s assessment correct for the 2020 presidential election? Let’s look at the record.

The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s very first tally was 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favored Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Was this the right call? Sure, we had shutdown-related economic challenges and maybe it felt like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune pointed out, we were not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they were better off then, than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, so Trump was losing. Democrats did a solid job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, shouldn’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Biden likely has the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have ever nominated.

Bonus Points

If the professor was wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it was game over.

So, why did Biden ‘win’? Massive cheating.

Unprecedented Cheating

Whether it was minimizing ID requirements, ballot-box stuffing, ballot harvesting, voting twice, voting in place of the deceased, forging signatures, doctoring ballots, not delivering ballots, backdating ballots, re-running ballots through counting machines, restricting the access of poll watchers, coaching voters at the voting booth, feigning water main breaks to clear out voting precincts and then manipulate counting machines, and using software now proven to be susceptible to vote-switching (as employed in dozens of states), the effort was pervasive.

Also, in delivering truckloads of computer-generated ballots, paying for votes, offering raffles prizes for voting, destroying opposition ballots, ‘finding’ stacks of ballots late, and so many other illegal and un-democratic schemes, the raison d’etre was the same: To rob us of our 233-year heritage, to vanquish our fundamental right to vote in free and fair elections, to prevent the rightful, winning candidate from assuming office, and, by implication, to steal other elections at the national, state, county, and local level.

As such, could any presidential prediction model be effective? No way.

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Jeff Davidson is the world's only holder of the title "The Work-Life Balance Expert®" as awarded by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. He is the premier thought leader on work-life balance, integration, and harmony. Jeff speaks to organizations that seek to enhance their overall productivity by improving the effectiveness of their people. He is the author of Breathing Space, Simpler Living, Dial it Down, and Everyday Project Management. Visit www.BreathingSpace.com for more information on Jeff's keynote speeches and seminars, including: Managing the Pace with Grace® * Achieving Work-Life Balance™ * Managing Information and Communication Overload®



 
 
 

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Education

Eight Dysphemisms to Start Your Week

A dysphemism is a word or phrase that is more offensive than the words it is replacing

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A “euphemism” is the substitution of an agreeable or inoffensive expression for one that might suggest something more bluntly or offend others, according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary. To say, for example, “He doesn’t have all his marbles,” is regarded as gentler than saying “He is stark raving insane.”

The Mighty Dysphemism

The opposite of a euphemism is a “dysphemism.” A dysphemism is a word or phrase that is more offensive, blunt, or harsh than the word or phrase which it is replacing. For example, instead of stating that the Manhattan District Attorney is “cognitively challenged,” you refer to him instead as a “total partisan whack job.”

For your amusement, at the least, here are eight dysphemism followed by the kinder, gentler, or at least more definitive terminology of what is being said:

“Biting off more than you can chew” – Orally extracting an amount of edible matter that exceeds what one is comfortably able to masticate.

“That’s a load of B.S.” – Your assertion reminds one of bovine excretion.

“Sh__faced” – Bearing an expression that one normally associates with the act of removing solid waste from the body.

“Can’t tell your ass from your elbow” – Unable to differentiate between your dorsal side orifice and the joint connecting your forearm and upper arm.

“Stepping in a pile of crap” – A pedestrian venture into an accumulation of animal or human waste.

“Go F-yourself” – Engage in the act of physical consummation with yourself.

“Up to your eyeballs in crap” – Finding yourself surrounded at the visual level by unpleasantly aromatic organic waste.

“Carnal knowledge” – Having a close encounter with another, free of garments and other impediments, leading to direct tactile stimulation.

A True Time Saver

Thank goodness for dysphemisms. In a most fundamental way, they are true time-savers. Without them, we’d be groping for tedious phrasing all day long. “Up your nose with a rubber hose,” if you don’t “catch my drift.”

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How to Trust God During Uncertain Times

God is in control of all things and that we can trust Him completely

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Want to Influence People Like Jesus Did? Click here to find out how!

Trusting God during uncertain times can be challenging, but it is essential for believers to lean on their faith and trust in God’s plan. As a Christian, I firmly believe that God is in control of all things and that we can find peace in His presence. In this article, we will explore ways to trust God during uncertain times and provide relevant scripture and quotes from famous pastors and Bible teachers.

Remember God’s Promises
God’s promises are true, and we can rely on them during times of uncertainty. The Bible is full of promises that God has made to His people. One such promise is found in Jeremiah 29:11, which says, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.” When we trust in God’s promises, we can have hope and confidence in His plan for our lives.

Another promise is found in Philippians 4:6-7, which says, “Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.” When we give our worries and fears to God, He can replace them with peace and comfort.

Focus on God’s Character
When we focus on God’s character, we can trust Him more fully. The Bible tells us that God is loving, faithful, and just. In Psalm 145:13, we read, “The Lord is faithful to all His promises and loving toward all He has made.” When we remember that God is loving and faithful, we can trust Him to keep His promises.

Another important aspect of God’s character is His justice. In Romans 8:28, we read, “And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love Him, who have been called according to His purpose.” God can use even the difficult times in our lives for His glory and our ultimate good.

Seek God’s Will
During uncertain times, it is essential to seek God’s will for our lives. When we trust in His plan, we can find peace and comfort. Proverbs 3:5-6 says, “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to Him, and He will make your paths straight.” By seeking God’s will, we can have confidence that He will guide us in the right direction.

Want to Influence People Like Jesus Did? Click here to find out how!

Build Your Faith
One way to trust God during uncertain times is to build our faith. Romans 10:17 says, “So faith comes from hearing, and hearing through the word of Christ.” By reading the Bible and spending time in prayer, we can strengthen our faith and trust in God’s plan.

Connect with Others
During times of uncertainty, it is important to connect with others who share our faith. Hebrews 10:24-25 says, “And let us consider how we may spur one another on toward love and good deeds, not giving up meeting together, as some are in the habit of doing, but encouraging one another—and all the more as you see the Day approaching.” By connecting with other believers, we can find support and encouragement.

In closing, trusting God during uncertain times can be challenging, but it is possible. By remembering God’s promises, focusing on His character, seeking His will, building our faith, and connecting with others, we can trust in God’s plan for our lives. As the famous pastor Charles Stanley once said, “Trusting God means looking beyond what we can see to what God sees.” Let us trust in God every day during these uncertain times.

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